Last month, Michelle Burbick authored this post regarding Cisco and Microsoft's position in the unified communications space. The blog references some research done by Synergy Research Group that shows Cisco having a narrow 0.2% lead in market share (16% versus 15.8%). Shortly after this report came out, Cisco actually posted its own internal blog beating its chest that it had retaken the #1 spot in the collaboration market. This after Microsoft had previously put out some research claiming they were number #1 in the prior quarter. It's worth noting that the market Synergy measured is actually a super-set of many markets including voice, UC applications, video, email, telepresence and other markets.
While the marketing folks at Cisco and Microsoft like to proclaim their #1-ness, I have a message to both of them--You're both #2! Both Cisco and Microsoft have historically dominated their markets to the point where their share of things like routers, desktop operating systems, switches, and e-mail systems are almost monopolies.
In those markets, the #1 vendor dominates and there's no question about who holds the top share because there's a clear winner. Who is the #1 router vendor? It's Cisco. Does the exact share matter? Not really. Similarly with office productivity tools. Microsoft Office reigns supreme and, again, precise share doesn't really matter all that much. Who is the best Canadian band of all time? That's easy--Rush. No one else even comes close.
The fact is that if you have to quibble over a few percentage points, there's probably someone that's counted the beans differently and has a different market leader. No one needs to prove they're #1, as everyone knows who it is.
Also, if you read through Michelle's piece it shows how Cisco and Microsoft get to their co-number 2 (or number 1) position. This shouldn't be a big surprise to anyone, but Cisco owns the voice market with a shade over 35% of that market. In fact, according to the Synergy data, Microsoft doesn't even rank in the top 5. The article also points out that Microsoft dominates in the area of applications (again, no shock here), where Exchange and SharePoint make up the bulk of Microsoft's UC revenue.
There's no question that Cisco and Microsoft are the top two in UC; every customer I talk to, every event I go to and every reseller I chat with says the same thing. What customers want is some kind of hybrid Cisco-Microsoft environment.
Many resellers and systems integrators today have specific Cisco-Microsoft integration solutions. Just before the summer I spoke at a couple of TechTarget events sponsored by Insight. Insight was pitching their "Cisco and Microsoft in harmony" professional services. The professional services market for UC has always been lucrative, but the rise of Lync has lifted it to another level.
Michelle's article raised two important questions in my mind: What could break the logjam? And does any other vendor have a chance of gaining share, or are we destined to have a Cisco-Microsoft-dominated UC market forever, and the rest of the vendors are all doomed?
I believe the answer the to both questions lies in the area of mobile UC. If you've been a reader of mine, I've stated many time that significant share shift only happens during market transitions. The market for communications shifts from TDM to IP and Cisco rises. Desktop software becomes a significant part of UC and Microsoft becomes a player. Mobile UC will be the next battleground for this market.
It's important to understand that when I say "mobile UC" I'm talking about more than just the software client on the mobile device. Mobile UC includes the mobile client, but also cloud services, contextual information such as presence, location and identity information, the analytic capabilities to decipher the data collected and a robust application developer environment.
Neither Cisco nor Microsoft is all that great a mobile UC vendor, but then again, neither is anyone else. Cisco's Intercloud initiative seems better planned out than the Microsoft's UC cloud strategy, which appears to be just a collection of several cloud platforms. Also, the network gives Cisco access to some contextual information that Microsoft doesn't have natively. However, Microsoft has been developing partnerships with network vendors that could close that gap. So right now, advantage Cisco but there's a long way to go.
The rest of the industry should look to the mobile world as a way of disrupting Cisco and Microsoft. There are a number of vendors that have some potential such as Unify with its Ansible project. A start-up company, Biba, has a robust mobile front end with a solid cloud back end. Avaya has all the components to build a robust mobile UC strategy--network infrastructure, wireless technology, a great mobile video solution from its Radvision acquisition, and its Collaboration Environment developer tools is one of the best in the industry.
So my message here is: For everyone else, forget about competing with Microsoft and Cisco in things they do well and look to the world of mobility to create differentiation.
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