SO WHAT'S AHEAD?
There’s a natural tendency to overestimate what we can do in two or three years while under estimating what we can do in ten years or more. In the past 30 years, the price of computer memory has come down by a factor of roughly 500,000 while processing power and other electronic measures of success have improved at similar but not quite so lofty rates. Given that so much of the videoconferencing world (camera, codec, microphone, display) is driven by silicon technology, it is dangerous yet intriguing to imagine where the industry might be heading.
The 3-5 Year Prediction
Over the next 3-5 year period, we believe the growth rate of videoconferencing systems to enterprises will maintain the heady rate of the past 1-2 years and possibly accelerate towards the end of the period. Major developments that will bring videoconferencing to near ubiquity include:
Unified communications clients will become integrated into the fabric of enterprise workflow and line of business tools, providing seamless support for video, thereby making it easy to escalate nearly any phone call or IM chat session to a video call. UC will also integrate room systems with the desktop, making multiple devices on multiple networks transparent to the caller. Presence becomes the user interface of choice for launching a call, and video becomes cool to use.
The growing availability of bandwidth for both local and wide area networks combined with standardized solutions for firewall traversal will ease IT concerns about running video on the corporate network while reducing the “who can I call” conundrum. Present limitations on room video systems integrated with the PBX will be lifted so that video calls can be routed by the PBX securely out over the Internet.
The introduction of self-configuring video systems will drastically reduce the overhead and support costs needed for large-scale videoconferencing deployments and for deployments to remote offices with minimal on-site support staff.
High definition video and wideband audio will become the de facto market standard, providing users with the audio-video quality they have long wanted, even at the desktop. Video will be as good as HD television, and voice will be better than the telephone. Videoconferencing will become a tool for corporate sales and customer relationship building (i.e. revenue generation), in addition to internal collaboration. Video will be more than just cost savings or cost avoidance.
Managed video services will be readily available from remote, but trusted providers/partners, driving down costs and enabling video penetration into SMB.
The need to save energy and reduce carbon footprint will motivate at least 500,000 large and small businesses in North America to deploy unified communications strategies that include videoconferencing and collaboration solutions. This motivation will be abetted by next-generation, video-savvy workers who are interested in saving the earth.
Video call centers will emerge. Some video call center workers will attain American Idol status, while the appearance of call center agents who use video will significantly improve.
The 5-10 Year Prediction
Government action in response to both an energy crisis and environmental threats will force more than 2 million enterprises in North America to adopt enterprise videoconferencing.
Inter-company videoconferencing and telepresence calls will become an everyday event.
Video calling will work its way into the shopping domain, including on-line shopping. Video kiosks or videophones will be standard equipment in banks, shopping malls, auto dealers, etc.
New technologies for displays and cameras will enable low cost, flexible large screen displays that will enable “near-telepresence” effects in small and large conference rooms. Tiny talking heads will become a thing of the past and big talking heads will be the wave of the future. Complex multi-codec telepresence systems will give way to single-camera, single-codec designs.
4G mobile networks will be deployed, supporting a wide range of video services, including two-way video calling. Enterprises will adopt fixed-mobile convergence and video-based customer services.
New applications that we haven’t even thought about will be invented.
Video calling will be part of the normal workday in the next 5-10 years.
Andrew W. Davis has more than 15 years experience as a successful technology consultant and industry analyst. Prior to founding Wainhouse Research, Andrew held senior marketing positions with several large and small high-technology companies. Andrew has authored numerous articles and market research reports and is the principal editor of The Wainhouse Research Bulletin. Andrew specializes in videoconferencing, rich media communications, strategy consulting, and new business development. He holds B.S. and M.S. degrees in engineering from Cornell University and a MBA from Harvard University.
Brent Kelly has written numerous articles and reports on unified communications, focusing on Microsoft, IBM, and the telephony vendors layering UC solutions on top of their PBXs . He recently released a new report on mobile unified communications choices
for enterprises. Brent has spoken and taught seminars on unified communications and on how to implement IP Rich Media Communications in North America, Europe, Australia, and South America. He leads the Unified Communications practice group at Wainhouse Research. Brent has a Ph.D. in engineering from Texas A&M University.
Wainhouse Research provides strategic guidance and insight on products & services for Real-Time Unified Communications. The global client base includes established and new technology suppliers and service providers as well as enterprise users of voice, video, streaming, distance education, and web collaboration solutions.
