While not a major element in the US market, Symbian is used on about two-thirds of the world's smart phones, with 200 million units, 235 models, and tens of thousands of third-party applications. The Symbian Foundation will stop charging licensing fees in hopes of driving greater adoption. Symbian is primarily on Nokia devices, though other handset makers do offer a few models using the operating system.
The cachet of the Google name has driven interest in the delayed Android operating system; current projections put availability in the fourth quarter of this year. In the meantime, LiMo is available on over a dozen devices from Motorola, NEC, LG, and Panasonic. The LiMo camp got a major boost last month when Verizon Wireless joined the LiMo Foundation. All of this "openness" may put pressure on Microsoft to rethink their plans regarding Windows Mobile. RIM and Apple will likely continue with their packaged hardware/software model, but they are both actively pursuing developers to add capabilities to their platforms.
The big question is the impact all of this will have on the range and functionality of the mobile devices that will be available to consumers and enterprises. The ultimate gatekeepers in this game are the cellular operators--not a place to look for enlightenment. These are the guys who are still clinging to a business plan modeled on the pre-Carterfone Bell System. The carriers are smothering the device market today, and offering a lame set of gadgets that are so tangled with their plans to suck more ARPU out of their subscribers that we're left with a product that is way less than the sum of its parts.
The pressure is building on the cellular carriers to rethink their business model, and I am becoming more optimistic with regard to the future of the mobile device market. The iPhone phenomenon was clearly the turning point. That one product demonstrated customers would plunk down several hundred dollars for a compelling (or at least "eye-appealing") mobile device. The deal AT&T struck with Apple looked like it was slanted in Apple's favor, but with the new subscribers they picked up, AT&T is dancing a jig.
The evidence of change in the cellular business is mounting. One element is Verizon's widely publicized commitment to open access to its network with its "Any Apps Any Device" initiative last November. Verizon also won the 700-MHz C Block frequencies that require support for open devices. This--along with the ongoing developments in the operating systems, the focus on fixed-mobile convergence, and the overall frustration of doing business with dinosaurs--has got to be putting pressure on the carriers to open up. However, not much has changed in the cellular business model thus far, so we're still in waiting mode.
The prospects are tantalizing however. We should all be carrying cell phones that double as iPods, maintain calendars synched to our desktops wirelessly, have built-in Wi-Fi (and eventually WiMAX if it ever catches on) for Web access and VoIP calling; all of those applications should be location-linked; vendor-sponsored local content should be deliverable by Wi-Fi; they should have cameras (but only if we want them) and the ability to upload, download, and share pictures, songs, appointments or whatever we want to do with our content in an open fashion that is unencumbered by the profit motives of the cellular carriers. It's about time.
Conclusion In short, it remains to be seen if and when the cellular carriers embrace that open model wholeheartedly. It will be a wrenching change for carriers who have prospered with a business plan that packaged a long-term contract with a subsidized handset. However, in virtually every technology business we have seen, openness is the rising tide that raises all boats. If the carriers want to build rather than stifle their market, "Set my handset free".
