Going wireless means giving up ties to the PSTN because folks don't want to pay for both landlines and wireless. Preferring mobility to traditional telephones and lines in the home, consumers in every state have cut their cords. Using the data from AARP, the lowest rate of losses occurred in Vermont, averaging 5% of households with wireless only. Utah residents top out at 25% of households with wireless only, and nationwide the average is 15%. Mix this in with Cable Cutters and the picture becomes clearer.Now, with economic contraction and businesses moving telephony services over to IP/SIP services there will be more losses on the copper side. Just a few years ago industry commentators said erosion of landlines was a bunch of static. The Telcos abandon wire when it's in their best interest to do so especially if it means cutting the CLECs that are dependent upon the same copper plant. This cutting out of your competition is after all a legal practice.
The end of this year may reveal an increase of residential users nationwide disconnecting even more landlines. Businesses, especially SMBs are sure to move away from some but not all landlines by deploying cheaper SIP alternative services. Alarm systems, monitoring and meter reading are certain to remain connected unless a wireless or other alternative can prove to be as reliable. With a 25% nationwide abandonment of landlines in both consumer and commercial markets, my guess is that landlines will drop in price as the telcos try to entice users to keep their landlines. But if this doesn't work and we see a continued nationwide abandonment of landlines, say hitting 50%, my guess is that at that point telcos will actually start raising their landline price, just so they can cover costs.
These are guesses but this is not: the Telcos are going to react. There are other factors too and these include Verizon's ability to install more fiber (FIOS). Fiber is a better medium and requires less maintenance for Verizon, but will Verizon and other Telcos be able to replace the lost revenue? Verizon said earlier this year that their FIOS customers could expect new VoIP services soon. Then add into the fold that the Obama administration may be going after telecom carriers namely AT&T and Verizon for abuse of market power.
Then Uncle Sam and his charges want more tax revenue. Energy and telecom are the cash cows of tax revenue and if the IRS charges ahead with the cell phone gimmick to collect a benefit tax from employees using cell phones for personal use, then you can guess that reports of lost cell phones will exponentially increase overnight. Managed Service Providers will likely get hit too and that means an erosion of cost benefits for early adopters. With these shifts, consumers and businesses can expect reactionary measures coming from both the Telcos and government taxing agencies. The FCC is pondering over-doubling the USF kitty and how to raise base prices to extend the Internet to everyone.
There are those who errantly think the government may take a more active role in regulating the Internet--surprise, you've missed what they are already doing, planning to do and ignoring. (See National Priorities) Everyone in government will have their hands out but will consumers and businesses be up to paying and will dial tone alternatives end up costing us more?
You can bet that with the shift of business telephony services over to SIP trunking that there are and will be noticeable tax revenue decreases. My SIP trunks cost less -and I don't see the same amount of taxes and other fees that I do with my landline services. What's interesting is that I found one full-service SIP provider (out of country) that does apply what seem to be ALL the taxes and penalties that we normally see on our Telco phone bills. On the other end of the scale I found another regional provider boasting about "the savings in taxes" by using their hosted services.
It shouldn't be surprising why I think most SIP Providers and MSPs are somehow putting the proverbial screws to the taxman similar to how Verizon credits Centrex users for federal subscriber line charges. A few evenings ago I listened to Paul Misener, VP Global Policy of Amazon talk about "Net Neutrality Done Right." He stated that they have no problem with user charges for gamers that use more than their fair share of bandwidth unlike the grandmother getting a few monthly emails. This is very interesting coming from an online retailer; my message to Amazon is you can bet with any added fees to Internet bills that you will be among the first ones that are blocked from networks.
Then, in another perspective, Neil Darling of Etherspeak states that, "SIP (voice) is just data." That's another interesting perspective--and I'd add that money is just a vehicle for exchange, so let's abolish the U.S. Treasury--money can be replaced with "just data." This doesn't mean that it's what I believe, because it's not. What it does mean is whatever it is that we repackage; it may come out being called something different but you're up against a wall trying to change people's perception of what it really is used for.
I'm beginning to think that net neutrality isn't about an open and free Internet so much as it is about arguing among vested interests in who's going to pay and for what and how much? The outdated regulations and policies are no surprise as are the struggles over them, but what will surprise people too late is their dependence upon the Internet and then realizing what it's going to cost them in terms of dollars for that dependence. The other surprise may come to those that are quick to abandon the old Telco services for SIP, because the exchange of bandwidth for dial tone is going to cost them more by way fees either from taxes, or carrier excess usage fees or both. Then, all bandwidth has a cost regardless of the use. The key point that I think folks either forget or ignore is when you come down the wire you've got to ask yourselves who really owns that connection in that A La Carte Telecom Market Share? I've got to add that I still think that the telecom market share is more akin to being an illusion than anything else and these are the landmines -the FCC, the Carriers and taxes.
There's a huge disruption to more than just traditional voice going on since the revenues and tax flows caused by shifts of services away from the PSTN and old models of doing business/work/pleasure are swinging over to the Internet--and you can guess that the taxman won't ignore it. Sooner or later the taxman will come a calling and the open and free Internet will get a facelift.
