In a new report, Gartner is projecting that worldwide tablet sales will grow by almost an order of magnitude over the next four years. Gartner calls this category "media tablets" and includes in it both "consumer"-style devices like iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab, and enterprise-targeting devices like the Cisco Cius.
Here's what they have to say:
The majority of knowledge workers cannot use media tablets to replace their notebooks. Since these workers usually also have smartphones, media tablets become their third device. Most organizations will not buy that third device. Because of the convenience factor for travel and an "instant on" for quick look-up functions, many users are paying for the media tablets with their own money to use both for work and pleasure.
For right now, at least, Gartner must be basing this conclusion almost entirely on iPad sales and usage within the enterprise; the only enterprise-focused tablet that's been released to the market so far is Avaya's, and Gartner doesn't even mention Avaya in its press release.
Furthermore, people are clearly buying their own iPads and then choosing to use them for work; the enterprise adoption path was similar for the iPhone. But I'd be surprised if many people are buying them primarily for work.
It's been pointed out that tablets are currently less than optimal for enterprise workers because they're optimized for information consumption, not information production--i.e., they're harder to type on for extended periods of time than are laptops.
I'm not sure Gartner's giving us a clear picture of a path to adoption for enterprise tablets from the likes of Cisco, Avaya and RIM; maybe that's because such a path doesn't exist or is difficult to ascertain. I'm still skeptical that enterprises will pay a premium for a device that they differentiate from the iPad based on superior hardware, at the same time that the enterprise vendors are trying to position themselves as software vendors.
I do think that if Gartner believes enterprise workers are buying their own iPads for work, it's a stretch from that scenario--which is really a dual consumer-work scenario--to expect that workers will buy their own Cius or Flare or RIM PlayBook tablet. That just ain't gonna happen. And if Gartner is right that the tablet is right now a "third device"--between a laptop and a smartphone--that enterprises won't foot the bill for, then who's going to buy these enterprise tablets?
