Hey, communications folks who were worried that mobile phones would overwhelm the traditional (i.e., PBX-based) communications infrastructure--you've got company. With the debut of Motorola's Atrix (which Robert Harris saw at CES and wrote about here), we now see the mobile smartphone threatening the very mainstream of IT--the desktop computer.
Atrix is the first known docking station for a smartphone, letting the user plug the smartphone into a monitor/keyboard while in the office. With Atrix, basically, your smartphone is now your hard drive.
This shouldn't really be a surprise; the typical smartphone is much more powerful than desktops from just a few years ago, and with 4G, it'll have broadband connectivity. And in theory it should be a lot more seamless than having to synch mobile and tethered work materials; this Forbes article makes the case.
So is this really where things are headed, and if so, are we talking short-term or long-term?
Let's break this down. While everybody has a mobile phone, not everybody has a smartphone--smartphones are still about one-quarter of the mobile market. And of those who own smartphones, not everybody uses them for work, and of those who use them for work, not all of them rely on their smart phones as a primary work device. So we're talking about a subset of the market that's even a candidate for this type of replacement now, though with this subset growing as smartphones gain share.
But just as not every worker is a road warrior who's ready to replace their desk phone with a mobile, not everyone's job requires him or her to carry their hard drive around in the form of a smart phone.
Furthermore, I really tend to doubt the Forbes article's assumption that docked smartphones will use WiFi in the office and thereby eliminate wiring. Maybe some new construction will go wireless, but given the cost of adding wiring plant later, my bet is that most companies will take the safe step of putting in the wiring. And in sites where wiring already exists, probably nothing will change in this regard.
One thing I think it's possible this could affect is the proliferation of mobile devices for road warriors. Robert also discussed this in his article, and it's something that came up when Sorell Slaymaker dropped by our office recently and we were chatting. The more you rely on wireless devices in both your personal and work lives--the more "stuff" you put in and on those devices to customize them for those two worlds--the greater is the likelihood that you will want or be required to keep the two physically separate. In short, in limited circumstances enterprises may start issuing smart phones as the standard "desktop", but that may not mean any reduction of the devices that a road warrior carries.
