With the New Year and the new decade underway, it's time for those tried and true prediction articles. In the last five years we have witnessed an explosive growth in wireless data services coupled with a phenomenal adoption of smartphones. Based on that, I'm not looking for a lot of major change in the mobile space. Rather, I see 2010 as a year when we see the major suppliers fortifying their positions and incremental developments in those areas where we have already seen major changes.Mobile Devices
* RIM will continue to dominate in the enterprise space with a small but growing challenge from Apple. However, the big story this year will be the introduction of the first enterprise-oriented applications for the Android, which will become a far more important challenger to RIM in the enterprise.
* RIM is also seeing phenomenal success with consumers, who now represent 80% of their sales. When you compare the numbers, RIM's consumer sales are roughly equal to Apple's. However, an iPhone user generates several times the data traffic of a BlackBerry user, so it appears the Apple users are getting a lot more out of their mobile experience- much to AT&T's chagrin.
* Windows Mobile Release 7 will be significant only to those parts of the mobile device market that currently depend on Windows Mobile (e.g. mobile computers). The new Windows Mobile will have little impact on their overall share of the mobile device market and none on the consumer market.
* Verizon will get the iPhone.
* Nokia will change their name to "Who?"
Mobile Policies
* We will continue to see pressure to support user-owned devices in the enterprise, particularly those iPhones. Mobile device management systems will provide better tools to address the anemic security capabilities of the iPhone. Corporate policies requiring "sandboxing" software on the device will still be required until Apple finally decides they really want to be a serious player in the enterprise market.
* Corporate responsible cellular plans will remain, though many more models will develop (e.g. corporate negotiated/user paid, straight stipend, etc.). Large buyers should still be negotiating the rates regardless of who is paying the bill.
* Enterprise mobile applications will continue to proliferate, though custom developments will be in the minority. "Canned applications" developed as parts of integrated systems will be the dominant model. Lame versions will depend on the device's browser, but good ones will incorporate a well-designed client that recognizes the requirements of mobile users are different than those of desktop users.
Mobile Operators
* The FCC will continue to pressure the mobile operators regarding early termination fees and handset exclusivity, and to a lesser degree, net neutrality. In the end, the mobile operator will invest in a number of "name brand" senators and representatives with the result being that nothing significant will happen on the regulatory front.
* AT&T has hinted that they might be looking at using their extensive network of Wi-Fi access points to offload some of the traffic from their overburdened data network. This will be a short-term, half-hearted initiative, as their long-term solution will be usage-based pricing. The definition of "usage-based pricing" is: "some users will pay more, nobody will pay less."
* There will be a momentary flurry of interest in WiMAX as an alternative for laptop access before it is completely overwhelmed by LTE.
Wireless LANs
* Another good year coming up as 802.11n upgrades continue. Eventually users will figure out what "transmit chains" are and what capabilities they should be asking the vendors about.
Fixed Mobile Convergence
* Eventually (but probably not this year) the PBX vendors will figure out they are not talking to the people who are actually responsible for mobility, but in the meantime, the mobile revolution will continue without them.
