Apple introduced the third iteration of its groundbreaking iPad tablet, with some core enhancements, but the news that had everyone buzzing was the fact that this version included 4G LTE capability. Apple has been consistently a step behind in incorporating the state-of-the-art in cellular technologies in both the iPhone and iPad product lines. The most recent iPhone 4S is still 3G only, reportedly because the available 4G chipsets were too power hungry and would exacerbate Apple's already troubling battery life (my wife has iPhone chargers in every room in our house, one at her job, and one in the car).
Most of the hardware elements of the announcement were circulating in the rumor mill. There's an enhanced A5X quad core processor said to boost performance by 2x, an enhanced 2048x1536 retina display, the same iSight camera as the iPhone 4S, voice dicatation capability, HD video recording in 1080p, personal hot spot capability, and Siri now speaks Japanese thanks to iOS 5.1.
With its larger battery, the iPad can apparently handle the power load of an LTE interface, though the battery life drops from 10 to 9 hours on LTE, which they claim will support data rates to 72 Mbps downstream compared to 42 Mbps on dual-channel HSPA. They went through a couple of download comparisons with 3G and it does make a noticeable difference in end user performance. The question is, will anybody buy it?
First off, at each memory size, LTE adds $130 to the price. While Apple doesn't break out sales of Wi-Fi only versus Wi-Fi/cellular-capable iPads, industry estimates are that Wi-Fi dominates, with 75% to 80% of tablets using it exclusively. IDC pegs Wi-Fi-only tablets at 70% of the market. Will people really want to pony up more cash to their mobile operator to have anywhere data access on that iPad? Of course, the operators are hoping this, as the Wall Street Journal is reporting that only 5% of Verizon's customer base has made the jump to the LTE service they launched in December 2010.
The up-front premium is one thing, but it's the monthly cost that nails you. In the US, the iPad 3 will be supported on the 4G networks of AT&T and Verizon; in Canada it will work on Rogers, Telus and Bell Canada. AT&T charges $30 per month for a 3 Gbyte 4G plan and $50 per month for 5 Gbytes; overage in either case is $10 per 1 Gbyte. AT&T also has a $14.99 tablet-only plan that gives you 250 Mbytes with another $14.99 for 250 MByte of overage. Verizon gives you 2 Gbytes for $30, 5 Gbytes of $50, and 10 Gbytes for $80; they have the same $10 per 1 Gbyte for overage. Sprint is the last holdout with a $40 per month, but their LTE network isn't due out until next year.
With smartphones, Nielsen tells us that average data consumption grew from 337.6 Mbytes per month in 3Q 2010 to 606.1 Mbytes in 3Q 2012; that's an 80% jump, but still below 1 GByte. However, you can do a lot more with a tablet. Cisco reports that in 2011, mobile data traffic per tablet was 517 MB per month, compared to 150 MB per month per smartphone, and that will accelerate with the advance of mobile video.
JR Raphael did some testing for a piece in Computerworld to see how usage piles up. With random web browsing and casual apps he burned up about 30 Mbytes a day, which would add up to 900 Mbytes for the month--still below 1 GByte. He then spent an hour listening to music on Pandora and found he'd burned about 32 Mbytes, about what he used in a day's worth of browsing, but still under 2 Gbytes for a month.
To really light it up, he watched 10 YouTube clips, each about 3-and-a-half minutes in length, and found that took a whopping 125 Mbytes, which with consistent use would rack up 3.75 Gbytes by itself over the course of a month.
So the bottom line is that if you want to surf and listen to some tunes, a 2- or 3-Gbyte plan should serve your needs at $30 per month. AT&T's 250-MByte tablet plan is for email and light web surfing (Average about 8.3 Mbytes per day). YouTubing it will set you back $50 per month.
While I can't see many consumers opting for this, the enterprise user could be a different case. iPads are increasingly being seen as devices for sales presentations. If the presentation resides on the tablet, you don’t need any connectivity. However if the presentation is streamed from a server, or the tablet is also used for email and data access or for updating a CRM application, you'll probably need cellular connectivity. However, adding another $360 to $600 per year in cellular cost (in addition to the smartphone you gave them last year), is a figure that will certainly catch the CFO's attention. For that kind of money, we'd better be looking at the tablet as a replacement for the smartphone, not an addition to it.
In his presentation, Tim Cook, Apple’s new CEO, pointed out that 172-million "post-PC" devices were sold in 2011, and iPods, iPhones, and iPads accounted for 76% of Apple’s revenues, so it is clear that the mobility revolution is in full swing. However, while tablets are hot, the mobile operators still might not be feeling much of the warmth.
