What's hype? Here are some definitions from the Internet. Hype is to "publicize in an exaggerated and often misleading manner." Hype is also "blatant or sensational promotion". I found 22 hype definitions at the Urban Dictionary.The hype cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies. The term was coined by Gartner. There is even a book, "Mastering the Hype Cycle, How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time" written by Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino, published by the Harvard Business Press.
Hype from vendors and service providers seems to be a recurring and continual condition; only the promoted technologies change. At other times, the technology, product or service is renamed and re-hyped as something new. When one hype cycle is done, another appears. There are many occasions where hype cycles overlap.
Gartner's hype cycle has five stages:
1. The hype cycle starts with the "Technology Trigger". This when the press releases arrive, getting the attention of writers and bloggers. Even if there are dissenting positions, the press coverage benefits the hype.
2. The hype increases to the "Peak of Inflated Expectations". More and more of the press and conferences discuss the technology and put it on their agendas, even when the real value of the technology may be suspect.
3. Then comes the drop, the disappointment with "Trough of Disillusionment". I have witnessed so many hype cycles, I sometimes think that I am permanently in the trough.
4. Once the trough has occurred, then the reality of the technology sets in with the "Slope of Enlightenment".
5. Finally, the "Plateau of Productivity" levels off to the market acceptance and real value of the technology.
There is a good example of the hype cycle graphic covering many technologies at Google Images.
I invite the reader to speculate where, Unified Communication, 4G network services, femtocells and SIP are on the hype cycle.
The time span for the hype cycle seems to occur in two time periods. Most technologies have a period of R&D followed by the trigger stage. The time period can be 10 years or more depending upon the technology. A second, mush shorter cycle has been occurring with services that are offered over the Internet. Here, the infrastructure already exists. The hype is over applications such as social networking offerings. The cycle in this case can be two to four years because there is not the long development time such as for things like the new iPad.
In the later part of the 1990s, Internet subscribership was reportedly doubling nearly every three months. Many ISPs and carriers anticipated the percentage growth and had acquired transmission facilities and routing equipment in anticipation of the growth. This was the time of the trigger to inflated expectations stages. Then the bubble burst and the telecom industry suffered greatly starting about 1998/99. The hype led to a lot dark fiber and over capacity. The market for Internet connections could not sustain the percentage growth.
Since 2000, we have seen the hype surrounding VoIP. The concept was solid but the ancillary issues such as network performance improvement and network cost were understated or ignored. VoIP is in the final stage, the Plateau of Productivity. It is proving worthwhile, but many of the promises stated 10 years ago have not been delivered or are break-even. Hype is positive belief and usually leaves out the limitations and gotchas.
We have seen the advent of digital broadcast television. The picture quality is better and there are usually more channel choices. However, the distance covered has decreased so that many residents who received 10 to 20 analog channels have lost about half of the channels once they went digital.
Look at the recent iPad problem with 3G. Skype has 100 million subscribers, but only a fraction of those are recurring users. eBay had to write off a substantial amount of their investment in Skype because it overvalued the acquisition. I remember when satellites were going to be the wave of the future. The installation of international fiber cables effectively limited the growth of satellite services.
Here several observations about hyping technology:
* If the hype comes too early, then the disillusionment comes early and the market for the technology may not ever recover.
* There is a window of time/opportunity for the hype. Too late and the technology may not be realized because an alternative technology was offered earlier.
* Remember, the hypers who are vendors and service providers generate the hype to sell a product or service. They are in it for the profit and market share, not the benefit for society.
* When the hype does not deliver the sales, then some vendors change the name and start a new hype cycle. I am thinking of the Comcast offering for "xfinity". Is it really new or repackaging with some additional features? Time will tell.
When you read or hear of what may be hyped technology, ask good questions. Question the benefits. What other investments or organizational changes need to be made to integrate the new technology?
