Last week's lineup of announcements by Avaya regarding the product roadmap for its own offerings and those it added to its portfolio via the Nortel Enterprise Solutions (NES) acquisition was substantial in scope and range. It may have disappointed some current Nortel customers who were expecting a more definitive timetable for many of the existing product life spans (only two products, MCS 5100 and NMC, were designated End of Sale for next year, 2011), but Avaya's work effort under a tight schedule (less than 30 days after official closing of the NES deal) must be applauded.
Though much of the work likely began months ago, it was still impressive to meet the self-imposed deadline. Avaya knew that the longer customers remained in the dark about the fate of the products they have invested in, the more likely the customer would be to begin looking for a new system supplier.
As I wrote in my earlier article, Avaya will continue taking orders for products announced at End of Sale for at least nine months, at which time End of Product Orders kicks in. One year later it will be End of Manufacturers Support for Software Development; two years later it will be End of Manufacturers Support for Hardware. There will be three additional years' time of product support, for a total six-year support period after the last order is taken (see diagram below).
The timeline indicates that Avaya's plan is to hold onto the installed base of NES customers as long as possible by reducing the fear that their products will very soon be manufacturer-discontinued and support will dry up. The timeline, however, may not be a comfort to customers who may have been considering a new NES system, because there is no knowing when the product they newly purchase may have an End of Sale Announcement (though this also holds true for virtually any competitor offering). At the present time, the NES SME solution roadmap and short term timeline is currently clearer than that of the large enterprise solutions.
Both Norstar and BCM will be absorbed into the Avaya IP Office 500 platform during the next year or two, at which time Avaya will likely announce End of Sale for new product orders. IP Office will be upgraded to support a select mix of existing NES Norstar/BCM digital and IP telephone instruments, management console interface functionality, and also select Norstar/BCM features to accommodate and placate existing Nortel customers and partners, while enhancing the Avaya product. It is a similar product roadmap Avaya originally developed for Merlin, Partner and the Integral 5 (I5) product it acquired from Tenovis a few years ago.
In a few years' time the only two SME offerings from Avaya will be the TDM/IP hybrid IP Office 500 and the SIP/server-based SCS, a major pruning of a currently busy portfolio. The Avaya Partner and I5 offerings will also be gone before long. The diagram below summarizes Avaya's SME plans. According to Avaya, IP Office 6.0 will be available later this year; I estimate that Release 7.0 will follow about a year later.
The future Avaya SMB portfolio will be the best of the current Avaya and Nortel offerings, and through SIP connectivity, the SMB offerings will also be able to leverage some of the capabilities of the Avaya Aura platform for networking and shared applications requirements.
The product that benefits the most from the Avaya acquisition of NES appears to be the little known SCS offering. The future of the SCS looks very rosy, because it was lost in the shadows of Nortel’s more widely known and sold Norstar and BCM solutions. The current SCS installed base of 15,000 station users should begin to grow strongly in the next year, because it was designed to be optimized in a unified communications environment based on industry standards and deployment of COTS servers.
The new order life expectancy of the large enterprise market CS 1000 at this time appears substantially greater than its NES SMB counterparts, probably four or five more years, at minimum. I assume that by mid-decade Avaya will migrate both the current CS 1000 and Aura Communications Manager platforms to a single common software platform, because long term development of two software generics is not feasible. In few years, virtually all of the system hardware will be non-proprietary for the communications system, using third party servers and gateways when needed. The half-decade time period is generous in allowing customers the luxury of long term planning without rushing out tomorrow to replace their installed system.
A key element of both enterprise solution evolutions will be tight integration within the Avaya Aura Architecture platform (see diagram below). Session Manager Server will serve as the focal point for call set-up and routing control; the NES-based Agile Communications Engine (ACE) solution will function as the SOA-based intermediary for peripheral applications. Avaya plans to support operating features and functions using a standalone Feature Server. Though orders for the CS 1000 are not ending anytime soon, the key question is how many customers will purchase the NES-based product as compared to its Avaya-designed 8000 solution counterpart?
Avaya must know that sales of the CS 1000 during the next few years are likely to take a big hit, but as mentioned above they are more concerned that the installed base (including Meridian 1 systems) stays put for the time being. The CS 1000 roadmap has been developed and designed for the installed base to buy time and avoid a potential mass migration to competitive offerings, with Cisco and Microsoft the most likely prime beneficiaries in the next few years. Other leading competitors, such as Siemens and Alcatel, could also be major beneficiaries, mostly overseas.
But why should a customer today or tomorrow replace an installed CS 1000 if development and support are continuing? Avaya is hoping that they will have a few years to market themselves to current NES customers as those customers’ most viable next system supplier. If any of the customers implement the Aura Architecture solution, this effort will likely succeed. Avaya is also making strong progress getting NES dealers on board to be certified on Avaya solutions and resell their products.
Avaya will be continuing to hold additional conference calls and webinars on the announced roadmap to present more detailed information and answer questions from customers, consultants, and analysts. Check this website for future updates as they become available.
