This Bloomberg article makes the case that Cisco will be among the big beneficiaries of President-elect Obama's proposed infrastructure plan--the author likens today's Cisco to the U.S. Steel and Caterpillar of the 1950s, which provided the raw materials for the massive highway program initiated by Dwight Eisenhower. Which raises the question, who else in the industry might benefit?Cisco's the obvious winner because anything that builds up the Internet builds up Cisco. Which is ironic--even as Cisco tries to be more of a software play, it's the old standbys--routers and switches--that could help the company most in the down economy.
In contrast, can anyone envision Microsoft being one of the prime beneficiaries? Maybe, in that pretty much anything that gets more people using computers for more tasks can't help but drive Microsoft products somewhere down the line. But Microsoft's core business model is being challenged by the Google/Web/SaaS movement; in contrast, nobody's really looking for another way to move packets around the Internet besides routers, and while an economic stimulus package may include requirements for dual-sourcing that could benefit the Junipers of the world, does anyone doubt Cisco will be the big winner?
What about other beneficiaries specific to the communications world? Could there be an energy-independence play that benefits enterprise video? Al Gore was enthusiastic about telepresence when he took part in this past year's VoiceCon Orlando keynote (as you can see in the video at the end of this post). That suggests there could be at least a voice for this perspective within the Green movement.
But what, if anything, can the likes of Avaya, Mitel, Siemens, etc. bring to the table in this discussion? If we're just talking about fatter Internet pipes and backbone, and carbon-reducing travel avoidance technologies, do these companies have much of a story?
So far, all of the business-related debate around economic stimulus has been backward-looking, aimed (appropriately, in my view) at saving existing jobs. That's probably critical to keeping the economy from going into complete meltdown, but it doesn't address issues of modernization for which the new Unified Communications and Communications Enabled Business Process technologies are suited. That process of modernization would be a second phase of the reinvention of American business.
The question is, can the Avayas, Mitels, Siemens, etc.'s of the world hang on until we get to that phase? Or do they have a play in the initial "rebuilding" phase of the stimulus? I'd love to hear folks from those companies weigh in.
