It's easy to dismiss what failed miserably in the past but here's some news about Apple and the recent iPad announcement.First thing--about the iPad, that was only the announcement!
Second thing--try focusing on "what the iPad can and will do!"
Third thing--in the Wall Street Journal:
* The iPad is expected to deliver 50% margins,
* Many expect an iPad traffic jam on AT&T's network,
* Apple defeated Amazon without selling a single iPad,
* Textbooks on Ipad deals already inked--without any iPad sales, and
* The WSJ is driving so much interest/debate on the iPad that they've added an iPad Topic.
Then my buddy Eric asked me, "So the kids today are into the iPad? Where do you come down on the 'It's just a big iPhone/it's one device too many?' comment we heard a lot last week on No Jitter?" Of course I first asked my 13-year-old daughter to tell me again, why she wants an iPad. Her response: "Besides being wicked cool Dad, I get portability where and when I want it." Maybe a 13 year old isn't enterprise convincing but my friend Doug Jenner of Best Words Ltd., long time user of Mac said to me about the iPad: "The phenomenon of 'feature creep' ensures that subsequent versions will eventually have a front-facing camera and the things all those sad sacks out there are now whining about it not having. So it's sensible not to be an early adopter. I know that, but I can't help myself. I know I'll be one of the first cabs off the rank just like I was with the iPhone, because I've got to satisfy my lust. I have no self-control in this matter."
To Eric's second question, I pinged Ernie Varitimos of Apple Investor and Ernie said, "While it's true that the iPad appears to be a big iPod Touch/iPhone, it's also a completely different form factor, which allows a completely different set of uses and applications that are able to be run on it. Also, I would expect that by the time it is introduced, we're going to see an update in the iPhone OS that will be specific to the iPad."
Even with a modest sales forecast of 1.1M units sold this year and then another 4.0M in 2011, that's a decent opportunity for downloads, new cellular subscriptions and more money for Apple. IDC predicts applications growth to reach 300,000 by years end while the AppleBlog says 500,000 minimum. Then, what about the numbers of movie and book downloads expected from the iPad community? Whatever the numbers, the arguments and reasons why Apple won't be successful sound vaguely familiar to those same die hard arguments about the iPhone a couple of years ago.
In Jim Burton's post, Will PBXs Evolve into SAXs? Jim cites a document he's authored and on page 7 you will note that iCID (Integrated Communications Information Device) includes Tablets as a class T-iCID and then in Jim's analysis on page 19, "Apple could be a big winner." I've also said before that the education vertical is an important target market of the iPad and it will change for the better giving students better tools at less costs--on average college kids pay $900 per year for textbooks and that's insane.
Investors and analysts get a little crazy if not emotional especially in the first quarter and after Apple announces its earnings and continued success in selling more of everything, especially desktop computers. The other smaller element of Apple's success is that enterprise cannot ignore Apple; and my other bet is that there are some that can't quite figure out how Apple even ended up getting into enterprise spaces. I particularly like what Ernie says on one of his podcasts about Apple, "Let's keep cool heads." In the meantime, the market and prognosticators are busy reacting to Apple's announcement. My "wicked cool" thought is this--if Apple delivers on the applications to verticals such as education and healthcare, my bet is that they're in for some more wickedly cool profits. Even still, where is the love for Apple?
