Is 2010 going to see slashing and cutting? The economic woes are far from over and for the individual you may already have some idea that you're going to learn, work and live proactively with more dependence upon the Internet and social networks to maintain your jobs and careers. Carriers already know they must ramp up to meet growing bandwidth demands but they also know they can't compete on bandwidth alone. AT&T's prediction that we'd run out of bandwidth won't come true but what may come true are the arguments for rate increases and a bargaining chip in the ongoing Net Neutrality debate. Don't miss opportunities to reap rewards from the social community because there is a vast amount of information out there--deciding what to pick or "mine" and then what to act on is going to be challenging.Microsoft is sitting on a big pool of money, as are other companies that acquired vast credit lines, a few have stockpiled retained earnings or are hiding wealth in assets. The industry is overly ripe for consolidation and the M&As will likely outpace last year's to strengthen offerings, location-location-location or both. Nortel maybe dead but their legacy lives, as does their gear still in operation. This too will be especially challenging to turn massive numbers of active and passive Nortel customers into a new revenue stream, and if that transition is well executed by Avaya, then they should champion the number one spot with solid bragging rights. This consolidation and winning of hearts over to Avaya won't be without costs--the channel will suffer because it's simply too crowded.
Then managing and securing them will be a daunting task.
Mobility and breadth of offerings bring about new challenges. Where UC solutions are placed will matter more than what they deliver. Other key challenges are the cell carriers' ability to meet demand--their services must improve with the wide scale adoption of smart phones and devices including better, faster, cheaper, easier to use including more services that must allow the user to pick and choose. Currently users are tolerating the quality of mobile service but will it continue to be an elastic bubble of increased demands that equate with poor service? For enterprise this poses as a threat of reliability, accessibility, security and quality.
The iPhone leads the pack in applications (good and bad) and this remains a challenge to everyone else. Hosted services face the ongoing saga of finding and delivering the right marketing mix similar to the carriers being able to find it on their own, so "balanced portfolios" have new application in our industry. While the carriers fight the lose-one-account, sign-and-add-one-new-account syndrome, the fragmented hosted players and managed service providers face becoming end-of-life or too small to scale in a larger market. An even bigger threat to the hosted guys are the carriers because if they ever wake up, watch out. What is interesting is comparing the hosted and MSPs to independent carriers and CLECs. Will this mean a new round of FCC regulation?
Potential winners this year will be any company that can close the gap between customers and those that defect. The hospitality industry stands to win if they can reduce costs and improve communications with their customers. Education needs a shot in the arm to relieve the old burden of teachers working to appease parents and administrators without killing effectiveness to the end customers--students.
Social networking and UC combined is the next killer app and while some think the two are one in the same and they are not or least not integrated with transparency. Energy and environment are the new economy and those that do adapt to it faster, stand to fare better than those that ignore the trend. The biggest business domestic risks are the unforeseen and almost uncontrollable hand of those in government. Of course we have taxes. All the continued shifts of revenues for monies collected in taxes for energy and the PSTN coupled with how personal or business affairs are carried on the Internet continue to change the dynamics of how the government picks our pockets.
Lastly, if this prognosticator is right then you stand suffer from these frontal attacks if:
* Your company isn't environmentally correct or friendly or fails to improve environmentally speaking,
* Brands are "Made in China" you stand to suffer setbacks and backlashes,
* The end of consumerism as we knew it--then what is the new model of production?
* Social networks can't be manipulated--then do you have the right tools in place to manage them?
* Copper prices went through the roof in 2009, outpacing even gold's performance, then what measures did you take to keep costs in check?
* Security costs increase to offset physical losses--network cameras will sell, as will attached network devices and services to monitor and archive them.
Whether or not the tiger ends up being a pussycat or a beast, I hope the best for you and yours in 2010.
