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Tablets Coming to a Garage Sale Near You

When I look at a new technology product, I think about what impact it may have on the market it is designed to serve and how long before it becomes obsolete. Occasionally I sense a new product will be short lived and can envision it on display at a garage sale or in a photo on eBay or craigslist.

There are many reasons a product can become obsolete quickly, but for this article I will only address a few to help make my point that the Tablet PC as we know it today may have a short life.

First, some products miss a critical mark, like Apple's Lisa. While a very innovative product, the $10,000 ($20,000 in today's dollars) price tag sealed its fate.

Microsoft's Bob is another good example. There are many reasons for its doom but even Bill Gates agreed, "Unfortunately, the software demanded more performance than typical computer hardware could deliver at the time and there wasn't an adequately large market."

Another reason products can have a short life cycle is technology can evolve quickly or the functionality of multiple products will converge, making the current product obsolete. Most technology products are on their way to obsolescence the day they are purchased. PCs and cell phones are among the best examples.

The very first tablet PCs were introduced in the 1990s and showed great promise, but it took 10-20 years for technology to evolve and deliver a commercially viable product with a satisfactory user experience. Those first tablets included the Apple Newton, the AT&T EO and IBM's Simon.

Fast-forward to today's tablets and the impact they are having. John Doerr, a venture capitalist at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and investor in many of the 1990s tablets, described Apple's iPad tablet as "a product none of us knew we wanted." Most of the people I know who have played with an iPad end up buying one--including me.

The one downside of the tablet PC is it's yet one more electronic device we have to carry on a trip along with at least one cell phone and probably a notebook computer.

But this is starting to change. Multiple technologies are evolving, making it possible to combine your personal computing device, personal communications device, personal collaboration device, personal social networking device, personal entertainment device, personal navigation device and personal information device to fit into a form factor similar to a smart phone. And so is born the "Personal 'X' Device" or PXD. The PXD will have sufficient processing power to replace your desktop PC and a range of wired and wireless connections to allow it to connect to any network, any size display and any range of I/O devices (keyboard, mouse, swipe, voice, etc.).

The key feature is that the PXD will be the device you always have with you, and you will merely have to borrow displays and other peripherals available to meet your immediate needs. When you are at your desk, your PXD will wirelessly connect to your display, keyboard, mouse and wired network connectivity (which is still faster and more reliable than wireless). Similarly, when you check into a hotel room, those same standards-based wireless interfaces will allow you to connect it to the TV, phone and other hotel services. Keep an eye on short-range wireless networking options like near field communication (NFC), Wi-Fi Direct, or higher speed Bluetooth.

The tablet might actually get dumber, drawing its processing power, memory and connectivity from the PXD. In addition to the general purpose tablets we see today, new tablets will be targeted at specific verticals and address the needs of specific use cases like patient health care.

BlackBerry is taking some important first steps with the innovative Bridge connection between their new PlayBook tablet and smartphones. The Motorola Atrix 4G has it partly right with a powerful dual core processor, plenty of memory, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and HDMI, USB and DLNA connectors. However, the optional "Lapdock" that docks the Atrix and turns it into a notebook computer is a step in the wrong direction. The problem with the docking system is that it uses a proprietary interface so you have only one thing to connect to, and you are too likely to leave the PXD behind when you leave your desk. The PXD has to stay in your pocket and connect wirelessly to those peripheral devices, much like the Bluetooth connection in your car connects to your phone. The only reason to dock should be for uninterrupted power or a recharging source.

Apple is likely to take a step towards a PXD when they release the iPhone 5. All the other major cell phone vendors including LG, Nokia, and Samsung are adding PXD capabilities to their next-generation products.

I do envision a day in the not-too-distant future when tablet PCs start showing up at garage sales as PXDs hit mainstream. I wouldn't discourage anyone from investing in one of these incredible devices that deliver great value and functionality, but understand, they are just one more step on the journey.