Earlier this month Dave Michels posted a piece on the future of IP phones, arguing that the "IP phone has peaked" arguing that a variety of factors are leading to a gradual decline in new desktop IP phone deployments as organizations move to software-based telephony or IP-enabled mobile phones as an alternative to replacing traditional handsets or upgrading existing IP desktop phones.Dave's hypothesis is borne out by recent data we've gathered here at Nemertes Research via interviews with over 100 end-user organizations on the VOIP and UC plans. While overall more than 95% of participants are still moving forward with their VOIP implementation plans, we've seen a change in deployment plans as only 37% of participants report a growing deployment versus 43% a year ago. Instead, as a result of the economy's impact on IT budgets, more organizations are deploying in a limited fashion, only replacing phones where they need to, usually due to facilities changes, the desire to harmonize disparate systems, or the need to replace obsolete equipment.
Those that are moving toward IP phones are increasingly looking at incorporating alternatives to traditional desktop phones, with 22% of employees now having access to softphones, though for the majority, softphones are a supplement to a desktop phone rather than a replacement. Still, participants tell us that 36% of softphone deployments are indeed to replace desktop phones, primarily for mobile workers or contact center agents. Given the low cost of softphones, coupled with growing popularity of desktop real-time communications dashboards such as Microsoft Office Communicator and IBM Lotus Sametime, we expect the trend toward greater softphone adoption to continue. Over 40 percent of research participants tell us that they are deploying or planning to deploy an integrated softphone-instant messaging application.
On the mobile side things are a bit less clear. We continue to hear from IT managers of the desire to integrate their mobile phones with their enterprise telecommunication infrastructure, especially as more and more workers come to use their mobile phones for the majority of their calls. However we haven't seen any great rush so far to provide mobile phones as the sole enterprise communications device. IT leaders tell us they are more focused right now on simply getting a handle on cell phone spending as they look for ways to reduce per-minute bills, renegotiate plans, or take advantage of minute pools.
We also see little interest so far in fixed-mobile convergence from the perspective of integrating dual-mode phones with in-building WiFi networks to shift calls off the public wireless network. IT managers express an interest in moving in this direction, but they continually find it difficult to cost justify the necessary investment in wireless infrastructure and management capabilities necessary to support voice (and potentially even video) for their mobile users. Instead, we see a growing focus on better integrating wireless and mobile users through find-me-follow-me type services, as well as mobile clients that enable phones to register with the enterprise IP-PBX and use the data channel for call initiation to take advantage of free incoming minute plans. We also see growing interest in delivering UC applications such as instant messaging and meet-me conferencing to mobile devices, again through integrated mobile clients from companies such as Agito, DiVitas, and OnRelay along with their IP-PBX partners.
So is it fair to say then that IP phone deployments have indeed peaked? With respect to the traditional handset device sitting on the desktop, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that we have seen the peak in one-for-one replacement of digital desktop phones with IP desktop phones. However what is changing in the very definition of an IP phone as organizations broaden their definition of the "phone" to include softphones with headsets, and cell phones. In terms of the overall migration to IP-based voice communications, the positive trend continues.
