Then, IT time vs TDM timelines are inherently different, even opposed. This isn’t, I think, easy for IT people to understand- thus we keep hearing “this is the end” announcements from them. Now for argument’s sake, let’s say your system is on the list. The economy is on a downward trend--call it what you like. Now is a great time, IMHO, to consider replacement- you just may have a little more power to negotiate slightly better deals during a down economy. Again, business needs will dictate, not proclamations.
So I hit a few statistical databases and checked the TDM inventory pulses through my sources. I found some articles refreshing because they were kinder to those “PBX types,” referring to them as “…and caring for the enterprise’s PBX assets with skilled technicians that know the PBX like the backs of their hands.” Can the majority of IP-PBX (physical, hosted, virtual) installers and caretakers truly say the same?
The supply side of TDM gear is still big. A1 Teletronics has exhibited at VoiceCon for a number of years and they still supply TDM along with IP wares, as do scores of others. There are others advertising at Telecom Finders and Telecom Reseller, along with companies still active in the buying/selling and maintaining of TDM. Many of these folks have support services and more than likely, many of you reading already know this and already use their services.
Next, I decided to call upon my all-time favorite: Telecom Gear (aka The Gear, since 1983) 1-800-964-4327. I think Jessica Evans over at “The Gear” was just as surprised and unaffected to hear “more of the same” of the death bell of TDM. Jessica said, “We’re still open for business!”
Notice the list on the article does not include Norstar, Nortel’s- best selling TDM box. Then, Avaya’s Partner, another TDM box, both of which are ALIVE and WELL! Sales are still going strong and rightly so because both of these systems are rock solid, they aren’t spending time proving their salt or claiming, “We think we finally got it right.” This doesn’t mean these boxes will remain the same, either- they are changing. Avaya is already planning something for the Partner product and it will be big, or should I say IP capable? These two systems are keystones in the industry. Show me one keystone IPT system.
MARKET SHARES
Granted, these are SMB systems (and L-enterprise may use them in smaller offices too). But folks including those in L-enterprise need to come to terms with the fact that L-enterprise TDM systems’ market share represents a small percentage of these systems. You may buy big, but you’re not big in the scheme of the US market. The SMB space is where the money is, and I’d question- are you guys still loss leaders for the telephony manufacturers? I don’t know the answer and I do have suspicions, but the same lessons learned years earlier will likely crop up again in the IP space. This may sound arrogant--but not by design or intention.
The other thing that folks are neglecting is the size of the embedded TDM market in the US. By just looking around- if TDM is dead or dying, then why am I seeing so many Model-T’s (TDM systems) all over the place as the norm, instead of seeing mostly IPT systems? Scrub Bank of America, then you see a lot less of Cisco’s visibility. Avaya and Nortel, in spite of themselves, good times and bad ones or Cisco’s marketing mania, are still highly visible products and respected brands as are Mitel, NEC, and Panasonic. So the jury is still out on who dominates- and even then, it depends on whose Kool Aid you’re drinking, what line/port size systems you’re comparing and whose statistics you believe. To me, it’s hard to say and we won’t know for some time who’s really winning the hearts of the market.
The realistic point I want to make is that TDM is alive, remains heavily embedded and continues working well. While new systems shipped are mostly IP--either pure IP-PBXs, IP-Hybrid or just IP phones for hosted models--you need to understand that everyone in a business or organization just doesn’t throw out their gear because it’s old, TDM or because you declare IT is taking over. That isn’t part of the business process and this shouldn’t be too surprising to you.
So just how long will legacy TDM stick around?
The huge differentiator in the existing embedded telephony market is between line/port sizes. This is where dollars and sense must meet to sustain the business, not the desires of the IT guy. It’s not always practical to converge the voice and data in SMB even still, after how many years and frivolous announcements that VoIP is improving? These declarations remind me of Hollywood people patting themselves on the back, discussing what they did right, how wonderful the other guy is and all the while ignoring the real world.
