Some surveys I have seen point out that about 60% of the present telephony market is controlled by the converged PBX vendors. The IP PBX has about 20+% of the PBX market, with the rest of the market being traditional PBX and key system products. By 2010, the converged PBX is estimated to still have 60% of the market with the IP PBX growing to about 30+% of the market. My opinion is that 60% will be the peak market share for the converged PBX. It will decline over the next decade with the IP PBX gaining the market share and becoming the dominant technology.
I have 11 observations that contributed to my prediction that the IP PBX will eventually reign in the PBX market. None of these will be the one factor to push the market to the IP PBX. They are listed in no particular order.
Cisco's growth to #1 worldwide - Cisco is reported to have shipped 1.6 million lines, slightly more than Avaya or Nortel for 1Q08. This acceptance of the IP PBX approach is gaining favor. I do not believe that Cisco will cause the shift to the IP PBX by itself. Others factors are cited below.
The center becomes a commodity server - More vendors of the IP PBX and some converged PBX vendors are using off-the-shelf servers, servers that are also supporting other IT applications. This means that the TDM processor is slowly disappearing from the scene. These vendors are also moving to a software model that clearly signals the demise of the hardware based PBX. I think we are very close to VoIP/IPT working in a virtualized server environment.
Open source growth - The open source PBX, although not commonly used by the large enterprise, is gaining market share especially for SMBs. This is an IP PBX design, not converged.
The growth of SIP trunking support - SIP trunking to the PSTN is growing in support from both the PBX vendors and the carriers. This will significantly reduce the legacy trunking and may eliminate the need completely. SIP trunking support is available for systems as small as Microsoft's Response Point all the way to the largest Avaya and Nortel systems. This also means that legacy trunk gateways will become obsolete in the next few years.
The increasing network size of the key system replacement - Toshiba just announced that their system can now support 1,000 lines. It is like other systems based on an IP PBX design. So the SMB market will most likely be all IP PBXs in a few years. Many key system vendors are expanding their products, IP PBX based, into markets that were traditionally that of the larger legacy vendors.
The slow retirement of the telecom professional - The telecom professionals that worked in the TDM world are retiring. I have noticed in my VoIP/IPT seminars that more data people are attendees because their organizations' telecom staff has disappeared. Telephony still needs support and these attendees are more inclined to an IP PBX solution.
Legacy vendors moving to server platform - Siemens, Intecom and NEC all have IP PBX products in their portfolios. If these vendors believed that the converged system is the ultimate winner, then they would not offer the IP PBX models. They are hedging their bets to ensure they will stay in business.
Data finally embracing IPT - My contacts with data staff has shown me that they are inclined to toward the IP model for just about anything they intend to support. Buying a converged system is a difficult sell. IP-PBX does fit into their concept of a converged IT environment.
Phone life is not infinite - Most converged systems are procured because they allow the customer to retain the investment in phones. A Voice Report survey determined that 83% of the phones on IP based systems, IP PBX or Converged, were legacy phones. This will continue for number of years. Eventually the enterprise will have to replace obsolete legacy phones. There will be fewer available on the market, except possibly on eBay. Phones will break; new models will be offered less commonly or not at all. The legacy phone in the entrprise should be almost entirely gone by 2015.
New companies won't buy converged - When a new company is established it is usually with a younger staff that looks for advanced communications features and is very PC-confident. These new companies are much more likely to select the IP PBX.
Greenfield = IP PBX - My clients have a hard time justifying the installation of legacy telephony phones and cabling in a new or refurbished building. They prefer data cabling alone, which forces the acquisition of the IP PBX. The converged products just look too limiting for long term use.
You may disagree, but do not dismiss my 11 factors. I think that by 2013/15, that converged sales will be less than IP PBX sales. In the long term, 2018/20, I do not see any market for the converged PBX. What's your opinion?
