Google is widely expected to make a major play in the communications market sometime in the future, but in the near-term, the industry is picking up mixed signals about Google's intentions. On the one hand, Google is not making announcements or even statements that would suggest major moves are imminent in the voice market; on the other hand, recent acquisitions make it seem unlikely that Google doesn't have big plans in real-time communications.
Keeping It Low-Key
Earlier this year, Google hosted two major events: Google Atmosphere aimed at corporate CIOs, and Google IO aimed at software developers. Both shows included major announcements, upcoming hints, and updates across their portfolio, but neither covered Google Voice. In addition, at Ecomm, a keynote presentation delivered by the Google Voice product manager discussed the real time cloud, rather than giving specifics on plans for the communications market. In fact, there have been no major announcements or changes to Google Voice for some time. The service remains in a closed beta operation.
Just by listening to Google’s words--or lack thereof--one could easily conclude there is nothing new and there is no need for an update of the articles I wrote last year (The Google Voice Disruption Aug/09; Searching for UC With Google Dec/09). Look at Google's actions, though, and it's clear something is going on.
But It Grows
A quick Google search shows the phrase "Google Voice" is more than 3 times more popular on the web in 1Q10 than 1Q09. But even more telling is a series of other announcements, rumors, and particularly acquisitions that suggest Google Voice just may be headed toward a more significant offering.
Google Voice in the News This Year:
June: Rumors posted about Gmail Integration
May: College Students Encouraged
April: Google Voice Desktop Client
March: Google Voice for Android Gets Updated
February: Google Voice Enterprise Service Coming in 2010. [disputed statements]
January: Google Voice App bypasses AppStore
But all that is nothing compared to the big 2009 story regarding the Google Voice iPhone Application not being approved by Apple. Evidently, the only one not talking about Google Voice is Google.
The reason Google Voice is so newsworthy is because it has the potential to dramatically disrupt the game. Google Voice turns the traditional voice business upside down--rather than a business model built around the desktop phone (hard or soft), it builds it around the phone number. The UC space practically gives away dial-tone for the right to sell UC and voice applications (and phones), and Google Voice only addresses the apps. The $64 million dollar question (inflation adjusted: the Googleplex question) is what will Google Voice become?
Google has an arsenal of UC capabilities and is actively positioning its Google Apps and Gmail against Microsoft Office and Exchange. Google offers IM/presence, video chat, and a strong solution for mobility with Android. Not only is Google Voice an ongoing topic of conversation, but Google has been busy acquiring companies, developing an enterprise focus, and building a reseller channel. Meanwhile, cloud services are dominating CIO conversations.
Recent Acquisitions
Google has made three recent acquisitions that potentially relate to Google Voice.
Gizmo5: Acquired in November 2009
Gizmo5 fills the gaps between Google Talk and Google Voice. It provided a gateway service so Google Talk users can reach beyond the Talk network as well as providing a SIP solution to access the Google Voice network (bypassing the PSTN). With Gizmo5, Google can integrate its Talk and Voice platforms into a service similar to Skype.
Since the acquisition, Gizmo5 has been closed to new accounts. Those with existing accounts can continue to access Google Voice via SIP. Ironically, a user can actually make their Apple iPad (or iPhone/Touch) a Google Phone device. Acrobits offers an application called Gizmo5 in the Apple Appstore. It is a soft phone client and, via existing Gizmo5 accounts, enables Google Voice calls over Wi-Fi and 3G.
According to Google, Google Voice is an application, not a carrier service. Google explained to the FCC that since it doesn’t provide dial tone, it is not subject to rules governing carriers. That is, Google has the ability to SIP-connect softphones and phone systems, but it may continue to choose not to. The FCC, and Google's aversion to desktop software, may prevent the company from releasing the recently rumored soft phone client.
GIPS: Acquired in May 2010
GIPS technologies are used for high-quality, real-time audio and video streaming. Though it isn't well known itself, its licensing customers are, including AOL, Yahoo, Baidu (China), and Samsung. Also included are major UC vendors including Cisco's WebEx, and IBM's Sametime, and Avaya. All together, GIPS licensees represent over 800 million endpoints.
The GIPS Video Engine Mobile offers video chat or videoconferencing capabilities on iPhone, Windows Mobile, and Android mobile phones (video), though it did not receive the fanfare Apple did with its recent announcement of FaceTime. Skype previously licensed codecs from GIPS, but opted instead to own their own audio codec and acquired one when it bought Camino networks. Codecs increase in value with their popularity--the more endpoints that can decode its message, the better.
ON2: Acquired in August of 2009
Google was quiet about On2's codecs and compression technology, until last month at the Google IO Conference when it announced WebM as a new open source project. WebM is Google's attempt to create broad support for (On2's) VP8 video playback using audio playback powered by Ogg Vorbis (an open source project previously created by On2),
Being royalty free as well as being backed by Adobe, Chrome, and Firefox (IE too though codec plugin required) could result in WebM threatening H.264 as the dominant streaming codec on the Interent. According to On2, VP8 uses about 40% less data than H.264.
Skype uses VP7 for its video calls and applauds Google for making VP8 royalty free. It isn't clear if Skype's motivation is to stop paying royalties or to become compatible with other video solutions. It is possible that Google Talk and Skype will become interoperable for desktop video, and doing so will certainly impact the enterprise, which is currently embracing H.264 (and Microsoft's RT-Video) on the desktop.
Reading the Tea Leaves
What these acquisitions have in common is real time communications. Google Talk and Google Voice are the current key real time apps in its portfolio, and these acquisitions both strengthen core capabilities as well as provide a path of interoperability.
Google could make a play for enterprise unified communications. It would be from a different approach than most of the current solutions in the UC market, which are still largely centered on the desktop phone or softphone.
Google Voice is a virtual number service. It works with any phone anywhere--no need to upgrade phone systems for the latest features. That could even mean existing phones or cellular phones could threaten enterprise phone system sales. Some enterprise vendors are embracing virtual number technology to create extensions out of mobile phones. Feature gaps are being narrowed with some rather sophisticated smart phone clients.
Today, Google Voice is a consumer oriented closed beta. It is not a viable option for corporate telephony. At the same time, the enterprise is evaluating the upcoming release of Microsoft's Communication Server. Using the current release of OCS with announced information and comparing it with a theoretical Google Voice Enterprise offering illustrates two radically different approaches.
While the illustration is currently fictional, it isn't too far off. Cloud computing is changing the way CIOs think, and Google is poised to disrupt UC with a new cloud angle: NaaS (number as a service).
But it isn't just about voice calls, it is about integration. For example, with the upcoming release from Microsoft, location information complements presence by determining which network switches are in use. On the other hand, Google provides regional location information in Google Talk's presence by using GPS (Latitude) on the mobile phone.
Google Voice isn't a business grade service and requires additional features before it should be considered enterprise ready. Business users will demand support options, inbound porting, and a centralized management portal to name a few missing features.
Furthermore, it is unlikely a premium edition of Google Voice will be offered at no charge. Google Voice does not provide basic call features--such as dial-tone, call transfer, or even 911. But overlaying Google Voice (and Google Talk) on an existing basic PBX could provide a fairly comprehensive UC experience with features ranging from intercom to voice mail transcription--effectively extending the life of "obsolete" premise based equipment.
There is the inevitability that some users will go without on-site phone systems at all (see NoJitter: The Future of the Phone: Bring Your Own). A virtual number service offers an interesting alternative to the hosted-voice-versus-premise-based debate. It is a different twist that could utilize telecom equipment and carrier savings to fund more mobile phones.
Google Voice is not the only virtual number service out there. Several platforms are out of beta and currently courting corporate decision makers. This month, Twilio launched OpenVBX as "an open source Google Voice" solution. Ringio offers a virtual number service with a web CRM angle, Phonebooth is a virtual number service from Bandwidth.com. Phone.com recently launched Mobile Office, a robust Android application for managing calls on its service. There are many more.
It is likely that one day, probably this year, Google will announce its intentions with Google Voice. Until then, it is just a conversation topic--albeit a fascinating one.
Dave Michels is a frequent contributor and blogs regularly about Telecom at PinDropSoup.
