Of course, I still use and need the PSTN on a daily basis, but my reliance on the PSTN has been drastically decreasing. The Microsoft-Skype deal will hasten the PSTN's demise.
So bye-bye, Miss American Pie. Drove my Chevy to the levee, But the levee was dry...
As many of my No Jitter colleagues have noted, Microsoft has confirmed its intent to buy Skype.
Zeus, Dave and Eric provide unique and insightful analysis on this acquisition.
However, the first thing I thought when I heard the news, was that this could very well be the day that the PSTN died.
Of course, the death of the PSTN won’t be a quick death like being hit by a bus; but rather, the long, lingering death associated with an incurable, degenerative disease.
Because the Public switched telephone network (PSTN) has been around a long time, since the late 1800s, some feel it could never die. But the reality is that data (IP) conversations have recently exceeded and surpassed voice conversations. As early as 2008 CNET news reported US mobile subscribers sent and received 357 text messages per month versus 204 phone calls per month.
When contemplating the immortal status of the PSTN, think about 8-track tapes, VCRs, fax machines and video stores.
Of course, I still use and need the PSTN on a daily basis, but my reliance on the PSTN has been drastically decreasing.
I already use Microsoft Lync on a daily basis. And because our company is federated with key customers and suppliers, many of the calls I make (by clicking on a contact name) already avoid the PSTN. I would suggest that at least 50% of the calls I make and receive currently avoid the PSTN.
And when you include other forms of communication, email for business associates, text messaging to reach my eldest daughter, I figure less than 10% of my overall communication actually makes use of the PSTN.
Outside the business domain, Microsoft Lync can already connect to the 300 million active Live Messenger users via IM, voice and video. To be honest, for me this is more of a theoretical capability, as I rarely use Lync outside of work.
And Microsoft has also demonstrated the ability to federate Microsoft Lync with Xbox Kinect users for video conferencing. That's potentially 10 million more users to communicate with.
The Skype acquisition adds 600 million potential users I could talk with while avoiding the PSTN.
Skype is already a major force in voice, capturing an estimated 13% of international call market in 2010. In the first half of 2010, Skype users held 95 billion minutes of voice and video calls--all of these calls ignored the PSTN. And if you look at Skype Out call minutes (that terminate on the PSTN) as a percentage of total Skype minutes, the percentage has been steadily declining from a high of 18% in 2007, to 13% in 2008 and down to a low of 12% in 2009.
Skype also provides mobile clients for all the important mobile operating systems: Android, Symbian, iPhone, BlackBerry. This means that the high growth in smart phone mobile devices enables non-PSTN voice and video alternatives to the PSTN.
Soon from Lync I will be able to call all of my colleagues on their preferred device, their mobile phones, while completely ignoring the PSTN.
Them good old boys were drinkin' whiskey and rye. Singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.--American Pie
After digesting all the analysis, my advice to you is that on this the day the PSTN died, I suggest you hoist a pint and toast Microsoft and Skype.
