VoiceCon was a whirlwind event. My daily calendar was filled with excellent content during all my awake hours. Even the late night conversations in the hotel spa--funny how an event like that can really take over a hotel.The show was busy and upbeat. Attendance and morale was up over a year ago.
1) Virtualization is real. Over the past few months, several vendors have claimed to crack the virtualization code and the operational and economic benefits are significant. Things are happening faster than I expected in this arena, and I don't think they will slow down. Just prior to VoiceCon, Mitel and Avaya announced virtualization solutions, and at VoiceCon Siemens and NEC Sphere joined the ranks. Virtualization is not about saving on hardware, it is the completion of a decade long convergence journey.
2) Skype. Though Skype did not exhibit, its "presence" in the enterprise market was felt. Matt Jordan of Skype joined me on a Cloud panel--AudioCodes and Grandstream made Skype related announcements. I now have SkypeMobile running on my Verizon cell phone (announced during VoiceCon at CTIA show). Expect to see and hear more about Skype in the enterprise. Related: Skype's All Business.
3) The vendor landscape has changed tremendously. For 20-30 years, the market was dominated by Nortel and Avaya (AT&T, Lucent, then Avaya). In the 90s, Cisco entered the market and soon took the leadership role. Now, it is dominated by several large players (though not all necessarily market share leaders). The dominating big companies (dancing gorillas) include Cisco, Avaya, IBM, Siemens, and Microsoft--when gorillas dance, onlookers get hurt. Could it get worse? yes, looks like Microsoft brought a date to the ball--HP. Though HP's intent isn't clear. Certainly helping Microsoft makes sense--the two have had a good run with PCs and Printers and both enjoy winning against Cisco. But how far does the Microsoft/HP FrontLine agreement go? And is HP going to be content with scraps (branch office gateway) of Microsoft's OCS strategy? HP has not closed on its 3Com acquisition, so its plans with 3Com's NBX are not known. However, it should be noted NBX could be revived and doesn't directly compete with OCS.
Another gorilla expected to show-up soon is Google. Google has made impressive penetration in mobility with its Android OS, and Google Voice is an interesting service that has a stated intention to head for the enterprise. Google is a bit shy with its strategy, but is been known to totally disrupt the markets it enters.
4) SIP is Legitimate. SIP is no longer an experiment. It got in with cheaper prices, but it is the technical capabilities that are carrying it now--particularly around disaster recovery and telecom centralization. SIP trunking is now a de facto standard among all leading brands (any telecom solution that does not support SIP trunking is a non-strategic play). However, SIP endpoints are not as universal. I expect SIP endpoints to gain in popularity. SIP offers lower ongoing costs, lower equipment costs, and additional features. SIP's interoperability capabilities are growing and its services are expanding (IM, talk, video, file transfer, etc.).
5) Desktop video is here: Though there are few indications customers want it or value it. Clearly the major vendors are pushing it and momentum is quickly building. I believe desktop video solutions will experience significant growth this year based on several factors. The biggest drivers are low prices and SIP standards simplifying inter-organizational video dialing. Now that video over H.264 over SIP is reasonably interoperable, expect to see more video-enabled hard and soft phones. I will point out that Tandberg's booth was 95% desktop video related technologies. Expect to see laptops with HD webcams soon.
6) Polycom in play. Polycom's primary product lines of video and SIP endpoints have quickly moved from periphery to strategic over the past few months. With Cisco about to close on Tandberg, it puts Polycom in a unique independent position. Currently Polycom technologies are used by a large number of competitors including Avaya, Siemens, IBM, and Microsoft--I don't see Polycom able to fend off acquisition this year. The Gores Group (parent of Siemens Enterprise Group) is rumored to be interested which could make sense since Siemens relies on Polycom video technologies and uses SIP based phones with its Openscape products. Regardless of Gores/Polycom--I expect Polycom to be snatched.
7) Subscription Based Licensing. I never even heard of this a few months ago, but it came up frequently at VoiceCon. The industry has moved to a software based model and with software comes recurring software assurance. Clouding the boundaries between hosted (rental) and ownership (purchase) is the subscription model where customers can purchase licenses on a subscription (monthly or annual) basis that combines right-to-use with software assurance. It is the latest experiment guaranteed to cause general confusion and give the CFO an ulcer.
8) Distributed Workforces: The world is flat and VoIP is a big reason why. Therefore it should be no surprise that so many VoiceCon attendees don't work or live anywhere near their main office. It was almost humorous, it seemed like 90% of the people I met worked out of home or a small branch office thousands of miles away from their "office".
9) Open Source Chugs Along: In many ways open source is off the radar. Digium/Switchvox had a relatively small booth at the show, but John Malone's panel indicated continued growth of open source phone systems (at the enterprise and SMB levels). Siemens opened their keynote by stating the industry was down 21% last year and Siemens was only down 14%. Meanwhile Switchox quietly claimed improved market share and Digium reported a profit. There is a perfect storm forming with the broad industry acceptance of SIP, the capabilities of open source phone systems, the increased pressure on cost, and a network of devices, gateways, SBCs, and GUIs available to make open source more capable and supportable. It seems open source telephony is working its way into numerous conversations and I daresay enterprise solutions.
10) Voice Innovation is not with Voice. Perhaps it is why the show is changing its name from VoiceCon to Enterprise Connect, but the reality is the major voice players weren't touting voice at all. The traditional things one might expect to learn at VoiceCon were not discussed. There were no new "traditional" phones launched, very little mention of HD Voice or wideband audio. No focus on switchboard consoles, nor major new voice mail enhancements. Few vendors had anything new with WiFi or DECT phones, or even operational improvements such as more intuitive ways to work a phone. All the innovation was in non voice related areas such as social media, presence, virtualization, and especially video.
I have mixed feelings about the upcoming name change of VoiceCon to Enterprise Connect. VoiceCon rolls off the tongue and clearly states that this show is centered on voice. But as mentioned above, the innovation and excitement around voice isn't with voice anymore. This may be true, but there are plenty of non-voice centric enterprise shows such as Enterprise 2.0 and Interop. Keeping voice as its linchpin kept VoiceCon unique.
Technologies change. I don't know how long the lifespan is of technologies such as Twitter, IM, or even email. But I am sure voice is here to stay and yes, the phones and devices will change, but the need will never fade. Voice has migrated from isolated proprietary systems to unified communications that represent convergence and integration with other applications and business processes. I understand the intent of changing to Enterprise Connect with its new tagline "Communications Transforming Business", but I fear losing voice as the central theme is dangerous. Will VoiceCon become an ERP or CRM show? Will FedEx be a Platinum sponsor next year? Dave Michels is a regular contributor and posts about telecom at PinDropSoup.
